A new model from the University of Virginia’s Bioxomplexity Institute shows COVID-19 cases rising into the summer.

For the first time in months, COVID-19 models are shifting to forecast another surge heading into the summer, perhaps eclipsing the delta wave.

One key difference will be fewer hospitalizations and deaths since the latest variant — called BA.2 — doesn’t cause as severe of an illness as last summer’s menacing delta version, according to a Friday report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.