For the first time in months, COVID-19 models are shifting to forecast another surge heading into the summer, perhaps eclipsing the delta wave.
One key difference will be fewer hospitalizations and deaths since the latest variant — called BA.2 — doesn’t cause as severe of an illness as last summer’s menacing delta version, according to a Friday report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.
Halifax County is adding about two new COVID-19 cases per day, marking the lowest level prior to last summer’s delta surge. However, with the increasing accessibility to home test kits, many COVID-19 infections are likely not reaching the official record books, national experts warn. Simply put, current low virus numbers could be deceiving.
The new variant is now dominant across the nation and accounts for about 85% of new cases in the commonwealth.
Over the last two years of the pandemic, UVa models have attempted to forecast the course of COVID-19, often shifting as a data changes.
One of the most recent runs released Friday indicate a slow — but steady — rise in cases throughout Virginia, doubling the current infection level by May and peaking in early June.
The rise comes from the spread of BA.2, an even more transmittible version of omicron, the variant that sent caseloads soaring to record levels in January.
Another scenario shows a faster surge by May and even higher cases by mid-June.
But researchers acknowledged the models could be over-estimating the growth because of recent shifts in data. The Virginia Department of Health, as a general practice, performs data quality checks.
In this instance, it means making sure a COVID-19 case is assigned to the proper locality. If it’s not, it’s then moved. However, that move changes the county-level metrics.
Signs
Yet there are other warning signs that show a potential surge is already in motion.
“While we all enjoy the current calm, we must note that early warning systems are picking up the first signs of potential trouble on the horizon,” researchers wrote in Friday’s report. “For the first time in weeks, other states, most notably New York, are showing slow growth trajectories.”
Throughout the state, there are nine health districts showing what’s known as slow growth, a term UVa uses to mean cases are on the rise, but not yet at a surge.
Also in Virginia, the reproduction number is now slightly above one, meaning case rates likely have already “bottomed out” and are rising. The reproduction number refers to how many people are infected from one positive COVID-19 case on average.
Another warning sign is in the form of wastewater surveillance showing increases in sewage sample viral loads.
“Though these data are far from definitive, we may be seeing the first signs of real sustained growth,” UVa researchers wrote.
Better place
Virginia is better positioned for another surge, the report noted.
First, test positivity and hospitalizations are at near historic lows. Also, with the latest omicron wave, those who were infected may have immunity protection, in addition to vaccinations.
A fourth booster dose — now available for those over 50 — adds an extra layer to that protection.
In fact, UVa sites a recent study that shows boosted individuals not only recovered more quickly than those with only two vaccine doses, but also had one-fifth the live viral load in their nose and throats while sick.
The lower the viral load, the less chance for spreading the virus.
