Under UVa scenarios, cases grow to another peak in either May or July — depending on differing factors — then fall again.

Halifax County is averaging about one new COVID-19 infection a day — the lowest level since June 2021 when the virus nearly vanished off daily reports — but Virginia health experts expect caseloads to tick up slightly with a subvariant taking over.

Friday’s report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute stops short of calling the upcoming increase a full-blown surge. In fact, it’s currently projected to have less of an impact than the delta wave last year. That variant — an altered version of the novel coronavirus — reversed the record low levels over the summer and caused hospitals to again fill up with COVID-19 patients.